Achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by midcentury is imperative to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Net zero refers to drastically reducing emissions and balancing out any remaining emissions with an equivalent amount of carbon removal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels—the target set in the Paris Agreement—requires global net zero by 2050 at the latest.
As the world’s third largest emitter, India has a vital role to play in reaching this goal. India is home to over 1.3 billion people and has a rapidly growing economy. Balancing development needs with climate ambitions poses major challenges. However, India also has opportunities to drive innovation and demonstrate leadership. With the right vision and commitment, India can chart an equitable and prosperous path to a zero carbon future.
This essay will examine India’s emissions profile, climate commitments, key sectors for decarbonization, and strategies to achieve carbon neutrality. It will analyze policies and actions needed across power, transport, industry, buildings, and carbon removal. Financing the zero carbon transition will also be explored. With concerted efforts, India can transition from a major emitter to a climate change leader. Its journey to net zero can blaze trails for other emerging economies.
What Does “Net Zero Emissions” Mean?
Net zero refers to a state in which human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced and any remaining emissions are balanced by absorbing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere. This is achieved through a combination of decarbonization strategies across all sectors and negative emissions technologies that actively remove carbon dioxide (CO2). Net zero is also referred to as carbon neutrality.
The key principles underlying net zero are:
- Reduce GHG emissions as much as possible across all sectors through clean energy, energy efficiency, electrification, and other measures.
- Replace remaining fossil fuel use with lower-carbon or zero-carbon alternatives, including renewable energy, green hydrogen, and sustainable bioenergy.
- Remove any hard-to-abate emissions using nature- and technology-based carbon removal solutions like reforestation, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and direct air capture (DAC).
Net zero requires systemic transformation and unprecedented cooperation among governments, businesses, and society. It implies deep decarbonization of energy, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, and other sectors. Carbon removal efforts are also essential to counterbalance residual emissions.
The difference between net zero emissions and carbon neutrality is subtle. Carbon neutrality more strictly implies a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. Net zero refers to overall GHG neutrality, including non-CO2 gases like methane, achieved through reduction and removal of emissions. In practice, the terms are often used interchangeably. The critical point is that net global emissions must become net zero around midcentury to halt global warming.
Why Striving For Net Zero Emissions Matters
The Paris Agreement in 2015 set a goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. This requires reaching net zero CO2 emissions globally by around 2050. Net zero for all greenhouse gases must be achieved by 2070.
Staying under 1.5°C of warming is critical because climate change risks rise rapidly beyond this threshold. According to the IPCC, exceeding 1.5°C will substantially increase risks of heat extremes, heavy precipitation, drought, sea level rise, species loss, and extinction. It will also heighten risks to health, livelihoods, food and water security, and economic growth, especially in vulnerable regions like India.
Every fraction of a degree matters. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C could, for example, result in 420 million fewer people being exposed to severe heatwaves. It could also reduce species loss and extinction by several orders of magnitude.
For small island nations threatened by sea level rise, limiting warming to 1.5°C is an existential requirement. Exceeding 2°C risks the total disappearance of countries like Tuvalu and the Maldives. Climate justice demands that major emitters like India act swiftly to curb emissions and do their fair share.
Make no mistake: The difference between 1.5°C and catastrophic warming is rapid, deep decarbonization NOW. Net zero emissions globally by midcentury is non-negotiable. With its large population and growing emissions, India’s role will be decisive.
Role of India in Reaching Global Net Zero
India is currently the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China and the United States. Its emissions profile is unique among major economies. In 2020, India accounted for 7% of global emissions, despite having 17% of the world’s population. On a per capita basis, an average Indian emitted only about 2 tons of CO2, far below the global average of 6.6 tons.
However, India’s emissions are rising quickly as its economy develops. From 2010 to 2020, India’s emissions grew by over 50%. Its share of global emissions jumped from 5.4% to 7%. Going forward, emissions are projected to expand another 4-5% annually.
India faces the dual challenge of lifting millions out of poverty while curbing emissions growth. It is still building the bulk of its energy, transport, and industrial infrastructure. It cannot immediately switch to zero carbon solutions.
Yet, India cannot follow the same fossil fuel-driven path to prosperity taken by today’s rich nations. That would lead to climate disaster. India will need to “leapfrog” to green technology instead. With the right roadmap, it can drive innovations that benefit not just India, but support the whole world in faster emissions reductions.
At COP26 in 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced India’s target to reach net zero emissions by 2070. While a later date than many nations, this signaled India’s seriousness and that it will do its part. India can exceed this target with sufficient international support. Its net zero journey will have global significance.
India’s Emissions Profile
India’s GHG emissions totaled 3.4 billion tons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020. Emissions have more than tripled since 1990. The energy sector accounted for 73% of emissions in 2020, followed by agriculture at 16%, industry at 10%, and waste at 5%.
Energy (73%):
- Electricity: Coal power contributes hugely, fulfilling 70% of electricity demand. India has the world’s second largest fleet after China. Renewables like solar and wind are expanding fast but still make up just 10% of generation.
- Transport: Transport emissions are surging as vehicle ownership rises. India’s vehicle stock could grow from 3 million in 2020 to 26 million by 2030. Aviation is also driving growing oil demand.
- Other Fossil Fuels: Fossil fuels like petroleum and natural gas are majorly used in industry, buildings, cooking and heating. Subsidies promote wasteful consumption.
Industry (10%):
- Major industrial emissions sources include steel, cement, chemicals, mining and quarrying. Most equipment and processes are highly energy inefficient and rely on coal.
Agriculture (16%):
- Livestock like cows and goats produce methane through enteric fermentation. Rice cultivation releases methane. Fertilizer use emits nitrous oxide.
- Burning crop residues after harvests is a major source of particulate matter and toxic air pollution.
Waste (5%):
- Organic waste decay in landfills and wastewater produce methane and nitrous oxide. Uncontrolled dumping and burning of waste are common.
While India’s per capita emissions remain low, they have been rising rapidly with economic development and population growth. Per capita emissions more than doubled from 1990 to 2020. Continued growth projected in carbon-intensive sectors like electricity, industry, transport and buildings threaten to keep increasing India’s emissions profile unless strong mitigation policies are enacted.
India’s Climate Commitments
Under the Paris Agreement, India pledged to:
- Reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030.
- Achieve 40% of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030.
- Create an additional ‘carbon sink’ of 2.5-3 billion tons CO2e by 2030 through forestation.
At COP26 in Glasgow, India enhanced its pledges by announcing a net zero target for 2070 and other ambitious goals:
- Install 450 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
- Meet 50% of energy demands from renewable sources by 2030.
- Reduce projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030.
- Reduce carbon intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 over 2005 levels.
- Achieve 20% ethanol blending in petrol by 2025.
To help mobilize climate finance, India also committed to multilateral development banks for $1 trillion in financing over 2021–2030. This will support low carbon infrastructure growth.
Clearly, India recognizes the urgency of climate action. Its commitments signal rising ambition to curtail emissions while meeting development goals. With commensurate international support, India could aim to overachieve its targets and reach net zero even earlier than 2070.
Key Sectors for Decarbonization in India
Reaching net zero emissions will require focused efforts across all high-emitting sectors of India’s economy. Strategic policies and investments are needed in power, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture and beyond. Some key sectors and solutions are highlighted below.
Phasing Out Coal Power
Eliminating coal power is perhaps the single most critical step for India to reach net zero. Coal makes up nearly 70% of electricity generation currently. In 2020, the sector accounted for over 50% of India’s emissions.
India plans to continue reliance on coal for baseload power. Its National Electricity Plan projects an increase in coal power capacity until 2030. However, ending new coal plant construction and achieving a managed coal phaseout this decade is vital to align with net zero.
Major investments in renewable energy like solar and wind are needed to displace coal. India aims for 450 GW of renewable capacity by 2030 – a five-fold increase over current levels. It should be feasible to frontload this goal and achieve 80-85% renewable electricity by 2030 through policies like:
- Large-scale auctions for wind and solar projects.
- Competitive tariffs and power purchase agreements.
- Transmission infrastructure upgrades.
- Priority dispatch for renewable energy.
- Mandates for utilities to meet renewables targets.
Coal power must also be made increasingly economically unviable through carbon pricing or taxation. Putting a robust price on carbon would incentivize utilities to switch capacity to renewables.
Phasing down coal subsidizes would further help retire coal plants. India spent over $13 billion on coal subsidies in 2020. Redirecting these funds to support displaced coal workers and affected communities will be essential for a just transition.
Programs like India’s Perform, Achieve and Trade Scheme (PAT) which sets energy efficiency targets for industries and power plants should be expanded and enhanced to accelerate the coal exit.
Expanding Clean Transportation
Transport emissions are rising rapidly in India as vehicle ownership booms. From 2020 to 2030, the vehicle fleet is projected to grow from 30 million to 260 million vehicles. Along with power, transforming transportation will be critical for net zero.
The government’s ambitious target for 30% electric vehicle penetration by 2030 is a good start. Stronger policy support is vital to achieve this, such as:
- Vehicle emissions standards on par with stringent EU regulations.
- 100% electrification targets for two- and three-wheelers by 2025-2030.
- EV manufacturing incentives to establish domestic supply chains.
- Purchase incentives for commercial and public transport fleets to go electric.
- Ban on new internal combustion engine sales by 2035.
- Investment in nationwide charging and swapping station networks.
- Preferential registration, licensing fees for EVs to discourage petrol/diesel purchases.
- Low-interest loans and tax rebates for EV buyers.
Along with electrification, India must invest heavily in public and shared transport options. Metros, buses, trains and cycles offer high capacity, low carbon mobility. Transit-oriented urban planning and complete streets for walking and cycling will also curb transport emissions growth.
Air travel is another fast-expanding source of emissions. A goal for 10% sustainable aviation fuel blending by 2030 would spur biofuel uptake. Restricting airport expansion and taxing aviation’s carbon footprint would limit demand growth.
Increasing Industrial Energy Efficiency
Industry accounted for about 10% of India’s GHG footprint in 2020 from activities like steel, cement, chemicals, textiles and mining. However, it contributed a much larger share of electricity demand – roughly 40% as of 2020.
Dramatically improving energy efficiency is essential to green this sector. Outdated technology and lack of energy management lead to excessive consumption. Carbon and energy taxes for heavy industry would encourage efficiency upgrades. Other helpful interventions include:
- Financial incentives to adopt ISO 50001 energy management systems.
- Accelerated depreciation rates for investments in efficient equipment.
- Mandates for regular energy audits in energy-intensive SMEs.
- Subsidized bank loans for adopting energy-efficient processes.
- Grants for companies to conduct training in energy management.
Switching to less emissions intensive fuels, feedstocks, and materials can also reduce industry’s carbon footprint:
- Phasing out coal for greener alternatives like biomass, hydrogen and electrification of heat.
- Incentivizing steel plants to shift toward electric arc furnaces.
- Supporting cement companies in using biomass for heat and power needs.
- Investing in pilot projects for breakthrough technologies like green hydrogen-based steel and cement production.
Reducing Emissions from Buildings
Buildings account for over 40% of India’s electricity consumption through heating, cooling, lighting and appliances. Constructing highly efficient green buildings and retrofitting existing stock offers major potential for savings.
India’s Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) mandates efficiency standards for new buildings. However, only 10 states have notified ECBC as of 2022. Nationwide implementation and ratcheting up standards can drastically curb building related emissions.
Retrofitting existing buildings is even more vital. Key policies should include:
- Generous subsidies for retrofits and energy-efficient appliances for low-income households.
- Tax incentives for commercial and institutional buildings to conduct energy audits and retro-commissioning.
- Revised property tax regimes to encourage green retrofits.
- Large-scale financing programs for energy service companies (ESCOs) to catalyze private investment in retrofits.
Accelerating rooftop solar installations through net metering policies and financing schemes will also allow buildings to meet heating, cooling and lighting needs more sustainably. Community renewable energy projects can provide similar benefits to homes without solar access.
Building-integrated green design, passive cooling, eco-friendly construction materials, and solid waste management will further shrink this sector’s carbon impact. India can leverage its strengths as an IT powerhouse to popularize smart monitoring systems for optimizing energy consumption.
Carbon Removal Strategies to Reach Net Zero
While deep decarbonization across sectors is urgent, some residual emissions will persist. Carbon removal strategies will be essential to neutralize these and achieve net zero. India has favorable conditions to leverage nature-based solutions and CO2 capture technologies.
Reforestation and Afforestation
As a high forest cover sequesters more carbon dioxide, restoration efforts are highly beneficial. India aims to increase forest cover from the current 24% to 33% of total land area by 2030. This target is aligned with its Paris Agreement NDC.
Community-led initiatives have proven successful for expanding India’s forests. For example, in Odisha State, community protection and revegetation of degraded forests under the Joint Forest Management program increased carbon stock significantly. Similar community-based programs can be replicated nationwide.
Agroforestry also offers major potential. Integrating trees into croplands aids carbon sequestration while enhancing yields and climate resilience for farmers. Financing and training can incentivize farmers to take up agroforestry.
Regenerative Agriculture
Healthy soils are an effective carbon sink. Promoting regeneration techniques like cover cropping, no-till, and compost application can raise soil organic carbon. One analysis suggests adopting no-till farming across India’s croplands could sequester 18-198 million tons CO2e annually.
Financial incentives to farmers are important for widespread adoption of regenerative agriculture. These could include:
- Carbon credits and direct payments for carbon sequestration.
- Subsidized finance for purchases of needed equipment and supplies.
- Expanded agricultural extension programs to provide technical assistance.
Research should identify optimal crops, techniques and policy packages for realizing regenerative agriculture’s emission reduction potential in diverse Indian agro-ecological regions. Community knowledge sharing platforms can disseminate best practices.
Negative Emissions Technology
Technological solutions like BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) and DACCS (direct air capture with carbon storage) are likely needed to address hard-to-abate emissions. These directly remove CO2 from the atmosphere and permanently sequester it underground or in materials.
India’s extensive renewable energy infrastructure could supply carbon-neutral bioenergy to power BECCS facilities post-2030. Likewise, abundant solar and wind resources could provide clean power to operate direct air capture plants.
Pilot projects are illuminating the potential. In 2021, India’s first DACCS plant was launched, capable of capturing 3000 tons of CO2 annually. Several more pilots are now planned. While costs are still prohibitive, purposeful policy and RD&D can drive down technology costs and enable large-scale negative emissions deployment when required. Carbon pricing, tax credits, capital grants, and partnerships with other nations can accelerate innovation.
Financing India’s Net Zero Transition
Reaching net zero emissions requires mobilizing finance on an unprecedented scale. Estimates suggest India will need around $10 trillion in cumulative investment by 2070 for transitioning its economy.
Funding will be needed across clean energy, low carbon industry and transport, climate adaptation, just transition support and more. Neither the public nor private sector can meet this demand alone given India’s development priorities.
A coordinated strategy for financing is essential. This will likely involve:
- Domestic budgetary spending on green infrastructure Here is the continuation of the essay:
- Public-private partnerships to leverage private capital
- Multilateral development banks and dedicated climate funds
- Bilateral climate finance from developed countries
- Debt-for-climate swaps exchanging debt relief for green investments
- Innovative instruments like green bonds, sustainability-linked loans, and carbon markets
- Mainstreaming climate considerations across the financial sector
- Aligning broader fiscal policies like taxation and subsidies with net zero goals
Adequate and predictable international climate finance will be critical to support India’s transition. Developed nations have collectively pledged to mobilize $100 billion annually starting 2020 to aid developing country climate action.
However, current flows fall well short. OECD estimates indicate climate finance provided to India totaled just $12 billion in 2019. There are discrepancies between what donors count as climate finance and what recipients consider new and additional funding. Clearer accounting and increased flows are necessary.
Beyond official aid, India can further leverage multilateral development banks and private capital markets for green investment. As of early 2022, five Indian states have tapped into the World Bank’s USD 125 million pipeline for green projects. Many more such collaborations are essential.
Meanwhile, initiatives like the International Solar Alliance spearheaded by India aim to mobilize $1 trillion in solar investments by 2030. Such platforms can channel funding into renewables while driving down technology costs.
Carbon pricing systems like emissions trading schemes will also redirect private capital away from fossil fuels, making green alternatives more attractive. India is implementing market mechanisms like PAT and exploring carbon markets.
Just as critical as raising funds is ensuring investment flows to supporting vulnerable groups through the zero carbon transition. coal, oil and gas industries. This is paramount to an equitable transition that leaves no one behind.
Expanded social protection schemes, reskilling programs, and community-driven diversification plans will be key to securing a just transition. Dedicated labor transition funds, like those implemented in Europe’s coal phaseouts, can be set up. Climate funding should be channeled into affected regions to generate new livelihoods.
Conclusion
A zero carbon future is indispensable for India to meet its sustainable development objectives in a climate-constrained world. Although obstacles exist, India has tremendous strengths to chart a prosperous net zero pathway. With visionary leadership, coordinated policies, finance at scale and technological innovation, navigating the complex transition is within reach.
The journey will be challenging but rewarding. Done right, decarbonization presents opportunities to strengthen energy access, air quality, resource efficiency, and energy security for India’s growing population. Succeeding in green growth will generate countless social, economic and environmental dividends. And India’s solutions can provide a blueprint for other emerging economies.
By assuming its rightful role as a net zero pioneer, India can recast itself as a climate leader. Its actions at home and voice on the global stage will be decisive in driving momentum worldwide. The time for collective ambition is now. India must seize the chance to make its mark in building the net zero future.
